Every Wednesday, real estate broker Jeb Smith and mortgage advisor Josh Lewis go live to walk through what moved in the economy that week and then answer questions from the audience. This recap pulls the useful home-buying and financing questions out of their October 29, 2026 show, which opened with the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady and the warning that another hike could still be coming.
Below you'll find their answers on whether we've shifted into a buyer's market, how to make an aggressive offer without offending a seller, and how to tell when a mortgage quote is simply uncompetitive. If you're new to the show, these are two practitioners with real skin in the game explaining what they actually see every week, not headline reactions.
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Build my Roadmap →No, a Fed pause doesn't automatically push mortgage rates down, and a Fed hike doesn't automatically push them up. The federal funds rate and mortgage rates are two different things. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield and the spread between that yield and mortgage pricing, and both of those respond to inflation expectations, oil prices, and overall market volatility.
At the October 29 meeting the Fed held steady, but the market was pricing in roughly a 78% chance of a hike at the December meeting, with the data over the following weeks (CPI reads and jobs reports) set to decide it. Here's the part buyers miss: if the market believes a hike is actually squeezing inflation, mortgage rates can improve even as the Fed tightens. As of 10/29/2026, Mortgage News Daily was reporting around 7.35% on the 30-year fixed, with well-qualified borrowers doing a bit better and FHA and VA clinging near 6.875% for strong credit.
Our take: don't try to predict the next Fed decision. Rates are higher than we'd like, but the volatility has calmed from a few weeks earlier. Position yourself so you can act when the right home and the right numbers line up for your situation.
In much of Orange County, yes, it's shifted into a buyer's market, though conditions still vary by city, price point, and property type. The old rule of thumb was six months or more of supply, but Jeb's view from the listing side is that months-of-inventory matters less today than it did five years ago. What matters is where demand has pulled back and where it hasn't.
There are still pockets, well-priced turnkey homes in strong communities, where inventory rarely comes up and sellers keep some leverage. Even there, a smart seller in this environment can't expect to pay no buyer-agent compensation, offer no credits, do no repairs, and sell strictly as-is. The market has rebalanced from the pandemic years when sellers held all the cards. A good transaction now is one where both sides feel they got a fair deal, and that usually means the seller cooperates.
National inventory backs this up. As of the week of the show, active listings had climbed to around 911,000, the highest since 2019 and only about 1.8% below 2019 levels, at a time of year when inventory normally starts to decline.
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Get my readiness score →Back your number with context, not just a lower figure. The biggest risk with a low offer is that you irritate a seller to the point they won't negotiate, so you justify your price with real comparable sales. If a home is listed at $425,000 and you believe it's worth $400,000, show why: pull the comps, point out that the sale supporting the higher number closed back in January when rates were lower, or that the comparable home was nicer or in a better location.
A good listing agent will take a well-supported offer back to their seller and actually make the case for it. If your comps aren't truly comparable, the other side will push back with better ones, and that's fine, it's a conversation that goes back and forth. The goal is two reasonable parties, because if one side wants everything and gives nothing, you rarely get a deal done.
One real example from Jeb's side: a Huntington Beach home listed at $3.1 million drew a first offer of $2.9 million within a few days on the market. The comps didn't support $3.1 million, they pointed closer to $2.9 million, and this home had a three-car garage that most comparable floor plans didn't. The deal closed at a contract price of $2.94 million, but the buyer covered $60,000 to pay off the solar, so the seller effectively netted about $2.88 million, slightly less than the original $2.9 million offer. There's no shortcut; it's a well-prepared case and a fair conversation.
Yes, seller-paid closing costs and seller-funded buydowns are legitimate things to ask for, especially in a buyer's market, but whether you'll get them depends on your local market and the strength of your offer. One listener buying in the Jacksonville area wanted to offer $400,000 on a home that had already been cut from $425,000 to $415,000, plus roughly $15,000 toward closing costs and a buydown.
What the seller thinks the home is worth doesn't really matter; the market tells them what it's worth. That kind of concession happens in softer markets like parts of Florida, but it also draws pushback. The way to straddle the line is to lean on your boots-on-the-ground agent for what's realistic in that specific area, present your price with supporting comps, and make the request without making the seller feel taken advantage of. If it's genuinely your favorite home after seeing many, that's worth weighing against pushing so hard you lose it.
One note on buydowns specifically: they're a valid tool, but they should be presented with full information about if, when, and why they make sense for you, not pushed as a default. Whether a temporary or permanent buydown fits your situation is exactly the kind of structuring question worth working through with Josh and his team during the Roadmap process.
Compare the full Loan Estimate, not just the rate, and benchmark it against a public rate source. Reputable lenders quoting the same loan program on the same day tend to land within roughly an eighth of a percent of each other. There's no magic lender sitting a half point below everyone else; when you see a quote that's dramatically higher, it's usually an uncompetitive situation or someone trying to take advantage.
A few real examples from Josh's side of the practice illustrate the range. One listener sent over six Loan Estimates on the same loan program: five were much more expensive, one was similar. A borrower in New Jersey was quoted a rate a full 1% above where Mortgage News Daily was reporting. Another listener got numbers from a local lender a half percent higher and asked why.
A practical check: get a quote, then look up where rates are on Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey or a daily rate tracker. If your terms are at or under that benchmark, you're probably in good shape. Just as important is professionalism and responsiveness. When Josh's team gets your documents, the goal is to review and get numbers back quickly, often within about 24 hours. If you're trading real professionalism to save a few nickels with a reputable lender, that's rarely a good trade, because the difference in actual dollars is small and the difference in execution is large.
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Every week we answer real buyer questions live, on the spot. Bring the one that's keeping you up at night, or send it ahead if you can't make it and we'll cover it on air. We go live every Wednesday at 5pm PT / 8pm ET on YouTube, with the replay on Spotify.
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