Rates hit 7.5%, the highest since 2023, and most buyers are doing the same thing they always do when rates jump: waiting. We get the instinct. But while everyone stares at the rate, the market underneath has flipped in the buyer's favor. One in five listings cut their price in the four weeks ending September 20, and nearly half of recent closed sales came with seller-paid concessions. So is buying a house at 7.5% rates actually a smart move? For the right buyer, yes, and the reason is simple: you negotiate the price and the concessions once, and they're yours for the life of the loan, while the rate is the one thing you can fix later.
This is the third time since rates took off in 2022 that we've hit a new high. Each time, the headlines read the same: this is the new normal, rates are staying here forever. Jeb made a version of this video at 7% and got told he was crazy. Then at 6%, same reaction. Now we're at 7.5%, and the people who waited through 6% and 7% probably wish they'd bought. The point isn't calling the top or bottom in rates. Nobody can. The point is what a prepared buyer can do with the environment in front of them right now.
Here's the mechanism most buyers miss. Higher rates thin out the competition. Layer that on top of a season that's naturally slow, with people turning toward the holidays, and you get a double slowdown. Buyer demand is sitting at some of the lowest levels in years. For a serious buyer, low demand is opportunity.
The numbers back it up. In the four weeks ending September 20, 21.1% of active listings cut their asking price, the highest share for that time of year since Redfin began tracking it in 2022. And Redfin found sellers paid concessions in 44.7% of August sales, the highest August share in records back to 2020. Compare that to spring, when rates were easing, affordability was improving, and sellers held most of the power. The pendulum has swung. (Rates, price-cut shares, and concession figures here reflect the market as of this episode, 10/19/2026, and change over time; confirm current numbers with a lender or agent.)
Your mileage will vary a lot by market. In San Francisco last month, fewer than 10% of properties saw price cuts or concessions. In Denver, roughly 30% had price cuts. Josh's team has listeners buying in Colorado Springs who negotiated nice credits plus additional credits in lieu of repairs, and they're getting in with no closing costs out of pocket. Why buy now? Because it fits their life. They're getting married, they're done renting, they make good money, and the numbers work. That's the whole thesis: time your life, not the market.
None of this is magic. It's leverage you only get when fewer buyers are standing next to you.
The deeper mechanics of asking for and structuring a credit are worth understanding before you write an offer, and our breakdown of how seller credits work walks through when to ask and how much is realistic.
Getting a concession is step one. How you allocate it changes your short-run and long-run outcome, and there are real trade-offs. A price reduction lowers your loan amount permanently. A permanent buydown lowers your rate for the life of the loan. A temporary buydown lowers your payment for the first year or two, then steps back up to the note rate, which means you're funding more of the same contractual payment early on, not changing what you ultimately owe.
There's no universal right answer. The best allocation depends on how long you plan to stay, how comfortable you are with the full payment, and whether refinancing is likely to make a permanent buydown redundant. This is exactly the kind of positioning we work through during the Roadmap process with Josh and his team. It isn't a crystal ball. It's a map of the options to get you from where you are to where you want to be, then the work of deciding which one fits.
Jeb frames it simply for buyers. Rates can go higher, stay the same, or go lower. By locking in at 7.5% today, you've essentially secured the worst case. If rates climb, you're already in. If they fall, you're positioned to take advantage.
Jeb lived this. In October 2023, with rates shooting toward 7%, a neighbor finally agreed to sell a property Jeb had wanted for years. He had a 2.99% rate on his current home. Taking this one meant more than doubling the payment, plus higher property taxes. But three boys and two adults in 1,700 square feet was bursting at the seams. The new place had the space, the location, and the yard. It was the right time in his life, so he moved at 7%, which was worst-case at the time.
Then rates rose toward 8%, and it looked like a smart move. A couple months later they fell, and he did a no-cost refinance, then refinanced again, eventually down into the fives. Looking back it reads like genius. It didn't feel that way at the time, and he asked plenty of people whether he was crazy. The answer kept coming back the same: you need the space, and that property won't come around again.
Here's the line that matters most. A lower rate doesn't automatically mean you can refinance. It's an opportunity, not a guarantee. Jeb was able to refinance because he had real equity from a large down payment and, as a self-employed borrower, enough documented income on his tax returns to requalify. Those two things, equity and qualifying income, are what let a refinance actually happen.
If you buy with little down and your home value dips, or your income situation changes, the window you were counting on may not open. That's why you never buy a payment you can only afford if rates drop. If you're banking on a future refinance to make the house work, you're not ready for this house. Go in comfortable with the payment as it stands. You don't have to love it. Nobody loves their rate. But you have to be okay owning it if 7.5% turns out to be the new normal for a while. For the full math on when a refi actually pays off, our look at when to refinance your mortgage lays out the break-even.
This isn't for everyone, and we'll tell you straight when it isn't. The clearest case to step aside: a buyer going in with little to no money down, say 3% to 3.5% on FHA or conventional, who plans to stay only two to three years before trading up.
That's not a hard no. It means be careful. We think home prices move more sideways from here, maybe 2% to 3% nominal appreciation, which, assuming inflation runs in a similar range, is close to flat in real terms. Selling costs money. Between escrow, title, attorney where applicable, and other fees, you're often looking at 5% to 7% of the price, before any concessions you give the next buyer. Buy with almost nothing down, stay two or three years in a flat market, and you can walk away owing more than the sale nets you.
The other person who should wait is anyone counting on a rate drop to afford the home. If the plan is "I can swing this for a year, then rates fall and relieve the pressure," that's not a plan. That's a hope. You need the payment to work today, money in the bank, job stability, and a longer horizon. In this environment, think seven-plus years. If you want a clearer read on where you stand before any of this, the honest version of reasons not to buy a house yet is worth an honest look.
The practical rule is to plan for the best, expect the most likely, and make sure you can live with the worst. Best case: you refinance into the low sixes within a couple years. Most likely: somewhere in between. Worst case: the rate stays put. If you're genuinely okay under the worst case, the way Jeb's seven-year horizon covered him even before rates cooperated, you have a decision you can make with confidence.
Analysis paralysis is the real enemy. We talk to buyers who could have bought at 6% earlier this year and are still running every question through a chatbot. It's a fine stress-test tool, but at some point you decide. One San Diego buyer with a VA disability exemption on half his property taxes could have had a payment below his rent had he bought earlier in the year. With rates higher now, it's $400 to $500 above renting. The perfect moment passed while he waited for a perfecter one.
Time and inflation quietly do a lot of the work once you're in. Over a decade, the home is likely worth meaningfully more, your income is likely higher, and you owe somewhat less because you've paid down some principal. But that only works if you step into the market and let it run. Buying a house at 7.5% rates isn't right for everyone. For a lot of people, it is, especially the ones who were always going to buy and are just looking for permission to stop waiting.
Stop guessing what you can really afford
It starts with a Discovery Call, a straight conversation about your real numbers. Josh and his team show you the price range and loan options that fit, and map out every step to closing. They handle your loan directly, never a referral, so you tour with confidence and write offers sellers take seriously.
Build my Roadmap →It can be, if the home fits your life and you're comfortable with the payment as it stands today. Higher rates thin out competition, so prepared buyers often negotiate a lower price, seller credits, or a buydown. You negotiate those once and keep them for the life of the loan, while the rate is the one piece you may be able to improve later through a refinance.
It depends on how long you'll stay and whether you expect to refinance. A price cut lowers your loan amount permanently. A temporary buydown only reduces your payment for the first year or two before it returns to the note rate, so you're funding more of the same payment early. A permanent buydown lowers the rate for the life of the loan. There's no universal answer, which is why the allocation deserves a real conversation about your numbers.
No. A lower rate in the future is an opportunity, not a guarantee. To actually refinance you need enough equity and qualifying income at that time, and if your home value dips or your income situation changes, the window may not open. Buy a payment you can afford today, not one that only works if rates fall.
Two groups. First, buyers putting little down who plan to sell in two to three years, since flat prices plus 5% to 7% selling costs can leave them underwater. Second, anyone who can only afford the payment if rates drop. If you need money in the bank, job stability, and a seven-plus-year horizon and you don't have them, waiting is the honest call.
Often the opposite. When rates are high, fewer buyers compete, so sellers cut prices and offer concessions more readily. You may pay a higher rate but secure a lower purchase price and credits that follow the home for good. The real risk isn't the sticker price; it's buying a payment you can't sustain if rates stay put.