Nobody can promise what the Fed does at any given meeting, and the answer matters less for your mortgage than most people assume. The Fed sets the federal funds rate, the overnight rate banks charge each other. Mortgage rates move with the bond market, specifically the yield on mortgage-backed securities, which traders price based on where they think inflation and the economy are heading. Plenty of times the Fed has moved one direction while mortgage rates went the other, because the market had already priced the move in. Rather than handicapping a single meeting, keep the durable framework: - The Fed reacts to data, mainly inflation and the labor market. A hot jobs report or sticky inflation pushes it toward holding or hiking; clear softening in employment and inflation opens the door to cuts. - The CME FedWatch tool shows the market-implied odds from fed funds futures, and the Fed telegraphs its own thinking in its statements and dot plot. - The CPI and jobs releases in the weeks before a meeting tell you more than the meeting itself will. Anyone claiming certainty about the next move is guessing. Build your buying decision around a payment that works at the actual quote in front of you (the Mortgage News Daily rate table on our site shows where pricing sits day to day), and treat any future Fed move as a bonus rather than the plan.