Maybe, with real unknowns, so we would be careful with any confident prediction here. On direct materials, our understanding (an educated estimate) is that only a small share of what goes into a new home is imported and directly exposed to tariffs, well under 10%. The National Association of Home Builders has estimated tariffs could add on the order of $10,000 in cost per home. Treat that as NAHB's figure and a moving target, since tariff policy itself keeps shifting. The bigger question is who absorbs that cost, and local supply and demand decide that more than the tariff does. Where new construction is still hot, builders can pass more of it through in the sales price with only small concessions. In a softer market they lean on concessions and rate buydowns to keep payments workable, which cuts the other way. Public homebuilders' quarterly earnings calls are a candid source if you want to track this yourself. And frankly, interest rates are a larger swing factor for builders than material costs. Builders often price near the ceiling of what buyers can afford and lean on buydowns to bridge the gap, so a move in rates strains that math more than tariffs on materials alone. If you are weighing a new build, compare the builder's all-in price and incentives against comparable resales rather than trying to price in a tariff outcome nobody can pin down yet.