Nobody can promise where mortgage rates go, so treat any specific prediction, including ours, with caution. The framework says sub-4% would take a lot. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread that has historically run around 1.7 to 2 points. For a 30-year mortgage to sit near 4%, you would generally need the 10-year Treasury back around 2%, which usually requires inflation to cool substantially. The sub-3% stretch went a step further: it took extraordinary conditions, a deep economic shock plus heavy government intervention, to push rates that low, and that is nothing like a normal, repeatable setup. Rates in the 4% range could plausibly return over a long horizon if inflation eases. Getting back to 2% or 3% would take something closer to a severe recession, which is a strange thing to root for while you wait. We will not put odds on it beyond saying it is possible, never promised. The practical takeaway: do not build your buying decision around a rate that may never arrive. If the payment fits your budget, you lock in your housing cost and keep the option to refinance if rates fall later. Marry the house, date the rate, and only if you could live with today's rate for the life of the loan.