Most won't end up stuck, though the timeline runs longer than optimists assume and shorter than doomers fear. We've argued both sides of this one on the show. The cautious read: a buyer only six or eight months into an FHA loan can't count on rapid appreciation to bail them out, and getting to 20% equity may take a while. The fuller math is more encouraging, because equity builds two ways at once: - Appreciation compounds. At roughly 3% a year, a home gains something like 16% to 17% over five years. - Principal paydown stacks on top. Retiring a few hundred dollars of principal every month adds tens of thousands over the same five years. Put together, many FHA borrowers reach the 20% mark within about five years. We'd call that the cost of getting into the market, and time in the market is what builds the equity in the first place. Two cautions. Nobody can promise appreciation, so treat any equity timeline as a projection, never a guarantee. And the refinance only makes sense if the new conventional rate, after costs, beats your current effective rate (note rate plus MIP). If you locked a very low FHA rate, that bar is high, and staying put may be the smarter move even once the equity is there.