Mostly staying put, for rational reasons, so expect a slow trickle rather than a wave. The "silver tsunami" of Boomer homes flooding the market is heavily overstated. Run the numbers and downsizing often costs more than staying once you add up moving expenses, selling costs, and buying at current prices and rates, especially for an owner sitting on a low locked-in payment. If the current home already fits their needs, say a downstairs bedroom so stairs aren't an issue, the case to move gets weaker still. The likelier pattern is these homes reaching the market gradually over the back half of the decade. Concentrated retirement markets can see a sharper local version, places like Palm Springs or The Villages in Florida where many owners hit the same life stage together. Nationally, the pattern is a slow drip. One more catch even where the homes do come to market: a lot of Boomer-owned housing sits in nicer, larger, more upscale areas. First-time buyers are starved for affordable, entry-level inventory, and that's a different product in a different place. So the wave, such as it is, arrives slowly and lands in the wrong part of the market to relieve the tightest pressure.