Because the Fed does not steer toward a historical average. Congress gave it two jobs: maximum employment and stable prices. Every rate decision serves that dual mandate. Where the policy rate sits relative to its long-run average is trivia as far as the decision is concerned. So read any cut by asking which side of the mandate the Fed is worried about. When inflation runs hot, the Fed holds rates high or raises them to cool demand. When inflation settles back toward target and the bigger risk shifts to a softening job market, the Fed can cut to make policy less restrictive, easing off the brake before the labor market takes unnecessary damage. A cut in that situation means the Fed is rebalancing between its two goals as the data changes, nothing more. One separation worth making: the Fed sets short-term rates. Long mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, which moves on inflation expectations and the market's outlook, so a Fed cut does not mechanically pull mortgage rates down with it. We cannot tell you where rates go from here, and nobody honestly can. What we can tell you is what the Fed is actually responding to when it moves.