They shouldn't move very differently, because the Fed doesn't directly set either one. The Fed controls the short-term federal funds rate. Mortgage rates track the bond market, mainly the 10-year Treasury, which moves on inflation expectations and where investors think the economy is headed. The bond market is forward-looking, so it usually moves ahead of Fed decisions rather than snapping to them at the announcement. By the time the Fed actually raises or cuts, the expected part is often already priced in. That's why mortgage rates can barely budge on a Fed day, or even move the opposite direction. VA, FHA, and conventional 30-year rates all draw from that same bond-market plumbing, so over any stretch they tend to rise and fall together by similar amounts. Small gaps between them come from differences in the programs and their guarantees. Jumbo loans, which aren't agency-backed, can drift more on their own supply and demand. Nobody can promise where rates go next. If you want to anticipate direction, watch the 10-year Treasury and the inflation data rather than the Fed headline, and follow the day-to-day on the Mortgage News Daily rate table, right here on our site.