We will not put a number on where the federal funds rate goes, because nobody can promise that, and anyone who does is guessing. What is worth understanding is how the rate gets set, which is more useful than a forecast anyway. The federal funds rate is the Fed's tool: a short-term rate it raises to cool inflation and lowers to support employment and growth. It is data-dependent. The Fed watches inflation readings and the jobs market and adjusts as those come in. - When inflation runs hot, the bias leans toward holding higher or raising. - When inflation cools or the labor market softens meaningfully, the bias shifts toward cutting. The Fed publishes its own expectations too, then revises them constantly as new data lands, which is exactly why point forecasts age so badly. One thing to keep straight: the federal funds rate is a different animal from your mortgage rate. The Fed sets the short-term rate, while mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury and the bond market's inflation expectations. The two are related, they can move differently, and the bond market often prices in the Fed's moves well before they happen. So watch what the Fed watches, inflation and jobs data, and remember that even a clear Fed path does not translate one-for-one into mortgage rates. Nobody can promise the direction of either.