We won't put a number of cuts on the calendar. Nobody can honestly promise where the Fed goes. The bigger misunderstanding is what a Fed move even does to your mortgage. The Fed sets the fed funds rate in response to inflation and employment. Mortgage rates are set by the bond market, and they tend to move ahead of the Fed as investors price an expected cut in before it happens. A quarter-point Fed cut rarely means a quarter-point drop in your mortgage rate; often much of it is already baked in, and mortgage rates have risen on the very day of a cut. Since you can't time it, use a rule for acting when the opportunity shows up. Josh's rule of thumb for whether a refinance is worth it: divide 125,000 by your loan amount, and that's roughly the rate improvement you need. A $250,000 loan needs about a half point. A million-dollar loan needs only about an eighth. When you can refinance at little to no cost and clear that bar, treat it as cheap insurance rather than waiting for a perfect bottom, because markets can stay against you longer than you expect, and life events (income changes, appraisal, credit) can close the window later. The durable takeaway: watch the 10-year Treasury yield rather than the Fed meeting. The Mortgage News Daily rate table, right here on our site, shows what pricing is actually doing day to day.