Nobody can promise where mortgage rates go, and anyone who does is guessing. What we can hand you is the machinery, so you can read the same signals we do. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury and the market's expectations for inflation. The Fed funds rate does not move them directly, which surprises a lot of people. The Fed controls short-term rates, while long-term rates like mortgages ride on where investors think inflation is heading over the next year or two. The bond market also front-runs the Fed. Rates tend to ease before a cut and climb before a hike, because investors and the Fed are watching the same jobs and inflation data. A cut everyone already expects is usually priced in before it happens, so rates can barely budge, or even rise, on the day of the cut itself. For rates to fall meaningfully, the market needs convincing evidence that inflation is settling toward target and the economy is genuinely slowing. So watch the inflation reports and the 10-year yield rather than the Fed headline. For a daily read, use the Mortgage News Daily rate table, right here on our site. What you control is your own decision. A 30-year fixed holds your rate for the life of the loan, and you keep the option to refinance if rates improve later. "Marry the house, date the rate" only works if you could live with today's rate forever, because nobody can promise rates come down. If you want your real qualifying numbers rather than a forecast, that is exactly what the free Roadmap conversation is for (about 20 minutes, where we run your real numbers).