Nobody can promise where rates go, us included, and anyone selling you a date and a number is guessing. What we can give you is the framework. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread. A quick estimate is the 10-year plus the current spread, which has often run wider than its long-run norm of roughly 1.7 points. The spread stays wide while lenders are uncertain about direction, since a falling-rate environment exposes them to refinance risk, and it narrows as confidence returns, which on its own would pull mortgage rates down. The 10-year itself moves on inflation, the labor market, and policy uncertainty. Softer jobs data and cooling inflation push rates down, an inflation surprise pushes them up, and a single report can move rates a large fraction of a point in a week either way. (Rates are national, by the way. Fannie and Freddie price the same in Denver as in Dallas, aside from a few local bank portfolio loans.) So watch the 10-year and the incoming inflation and jobs data rather than a calendar. For the daily read, use the Mortgage News Daily rate table, right here on our site. The move that actually matters is your payment. Whenever rates fall far enough to cut it meaningfully at little to no cost, refinance then instead of waiting for a specific headline number. Marry the house, date the rate, with the honest caveat that the refinance option is a possibility and never a promise. The free Roadmap conversation (about 20 minutes) is where we run your real numbers.