Nobody can promise where home prices go, so treat any confident crash call, or moon-shot call, with equal suspicion. The mechanism is what holds up over time. Home prices are sticky to the upside. Owners resist selling for less than they paid or giving up a low fixed rate, so housing rarely drops the way a stock can. A true crash (call it a 20%-plus decline) requires a flood of forced sellers dumping homes below market at once. That takes a specific combination: widespread thin equity, payment stress, and unemployment high enough to push people into distressed sales. Every past nationwide price decline shared one fingerprint, a huge share of listings being bank-owned foreclosures. When most owners hold real equity and an affordable payment, that engine is missing. A milder correction, say 5% to 10% in some markets, is very possible, usually when higher rates meet a slowing economy and rising inventory. Prices soften meaningfully when supply climbs relative to demand, so the number to track in your area is inventory. Two things worth holding onto: - Real estate is local. A national headline tells you almost nothing about your zip code. - Flat is more likely than a cliff. A long stretch of flat-to-modest movement, where wages and inflation slowly catch up, is a more realistic path than the deep crash some buyers wait years for while their window passes. Buy when the home fits your life and the math works, and let your own market drive the call.