There is no magic rate. The right target clears your break-even with room to spare, and that number is yours alone. Work it from the break-even out. Take what the refinance would cost to close and divide by the monthly savings a given rate drop produces. That is how many months until the new loan pays for itself. On a large loan, a smaller improvement covers its costs faster because the dollar savings scale with the balance, so the worthwhile threshold differs for everyone. Our judgment call: we want to see at least a quarter-point improvement before bothering, and we usually prefer to wait for something closer to three-eighths or a half. Refinancing has real friction, and capturing one meaningful improvement beats nibbling at several small ones and wishing you had waited. Two timing notes: - Lenders generally want a loan on the books around six months before it pays off, because their investor contracts claw back the premium on very early payoffs. Expect resistance to a refinance days after closing. - Nobody can promise when a given rate will arrive. Skip the forecast and set your own trigger: the rate that clears your break-even with margin, acted on when the market reaches it. We will calculate that exact number for your loan on the free Roadmap conversation, about 20 minutes with your real numbers.