Heading into early 2020, before the pandemic hit, the best-qualified borrowers were in the low 4s on a 30-year fixed, and paying a bit could get you into the high 3s. That was about as good as rates had gotten at that point. (This one is a historical question, so historical numbers are fair game.) The backdrop makes the numbers make sense. The 10-year Treasury, which mortgage rates track, was already down around 2%, and the Fed's worry at the time ran the opposite direction from later years: how to get inflation up to its 2% target rather than down to it. Rates were low because the economy was running cool and inflation was stubbornly soft. That is a very different world from a high-inflation, high-rate environment, and a useful reminder that mortgage rates reflect the bond market and the inflation expectations of the moment. Nobody can promise which set of conditions returns, or when.