That asks for a forecast, and nobody can promise what the Fed will do or when. The framework is more useful than any prediction. The Fed tends to run behind the curve in both directions. In theory the cleaner move is to start easing as inflation approaches the 2 percent target rather than waiting for it to print exactly 2, because monetary policy works with a long lag. The complication: the inflation data itself lags, especially the shelter component, the slowest-moving piece of the index. Strip shelter out and the recent-months trend can look very different from the headline year-over-year number. That gap is why reasonable people argue the Fed is too restrictive and not restrictive enough in the same week. So rather than betting on a specific Fed decision, watch what actually drives your mortgage rate: the 10-year Treasury and the bond market's read on where inflation is heading. The Fed sets the short end; long-term mortgage rates move on investor expectations. If you are trying to time a purchase or refinance around a Fed meeting, that mismatch is the thing to keep in mind. For the current picture, check the Mortgage News Daily rate table, right here on our site.