Split luxury into two tiers first, because they don't behave alike. The merely-luxury range (low single-digit millions) is still somewhat rate-sensitive and tends to benefit when rates hold steady or ease. The trophy tier (tens of millions and up) trades on scarcity and one-of-a-kind demand, so it's far less tied to where rates sit. One common assumption worth correcting: most luxury buyers aren't all-cash. Plenty finance a large share of the purchase on purpose, because keeping capital invested elsewhere can beat sinking it all into the house. A sizeable loan against a multimillion-dollar purchase is routine for exactly that reason. We won't forecast where the luxury market goes in any specific year. Nobody can promise a direction, since it depends on rates, the broader economy, and how much trophy demand shows up. Watch inventory at each price tier and how long high-end listings sit. Those signal shifting conditions well before any annual prediction would.