Demographics are a genuine tailwind, but affordability decides how much of that demand ever reaches the market. On paper the demand picture is strong. A large millennial cohort is moving through the prime first-time-buying ages, and the generation behind them is even bigger. The catch is that a population chart only turns into purchases when people can qualify, and a wall of would-be buyers who can't afford the payment doesn't move prices an inch. On supply, a few forces pull against each other: - A persistent shortage. The national deficit of homes is often estimated in the millions of units, which supports prices over time. - Builders self-restrict. When rates are high and demand softens, builders slow down to avoid getting stuck with unsold inventory, which pushes the shortage further down the road instead of resolving it. - New homes skew expensive. Rising land, permitting, and material costs force builders toward the price bands where the margins work, so new supply isn't showing up at the affordable entry level, which is exactly where the demographic demand is concentrated. Nobody can promise where demand or prices go. The durable read: strong underlying demographic demand, a persistent supply shortage, and affordability as the throttle that decides how much of that demand actually reaches the market. Watch affordability and entry-level supply more than the population headlines.