Much lower than the 2008 comparison suggests, because today you're underwritten at the full note rate, never the teaser payment. Your approved loan amount already assumes the full payment from day one. That single change is the heart of the post-2008 reform: back then, borrowers were sometimes qualified only at low introductory rates and couldn't absorb the reset. It also depends which buydown you mean: - Permanent buydown. The rate never changes for the life of the loan, so there's no future payment shock and effectively no distress risk from the structure itself. - Temporary 2-1 buydown. The payment runs as if the rate were two percentage points lower in year one and one point lower in year two, then reverts to the full note rate. That's a real payment increase after twenty-four months, but the borrower was qualified at the full note-rate payment from the start, so the step-up shouldn't push a properly qualified buyer past what they were approved to handle. So the systemic distress scenario is far less likely now. The honest caveat: qualifying on paper and living the payment comfortably are two different things. An individual borrower can still feel genuine strain when the payment steps up, especially if income or expenses shifted after closing. Which is why our standing advice is to buy the payment you're comfortable with at the full rate, and treat any subsidy or future refinance as a bonus.