We put low odds on true stagflation, and it is the one scenario where the two forces on mortgage rates pull in opposite directions. Stagflation means high inflation alongside stagnant growth, and the severe 1970s-and-early-1980s version, double-digit inflation with a shrinking economy, has really only happened once. A milder mix, firmer inflation with slower growth, is more plausible. For rates, the tension is this: inflation pushes mortgage rates up, weak growth usually pulls them down, and stagflation is the rare setup where both act at once. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, which moves on inflation expectations and growth, so the mixed signals are exactly what make this scenario hard to handicap, and nobody can promise a direction from here. The practical part: markets are forward-looking and have already priced their collective expectations into current bond yields. You will not out-guess that, and we would not time a purchase or a refinance around a macro call. Buy or refinance when your own numbers work, knowing the 30-year fixed leaves you the option to revisit the rate later if the environment improves. An option, though, never a promise. If you want your specific numbers pressure-tested, that is what the free Roadmap conversation is for.