Nobody can promise what the Fed does or where the economy heads, so treat any specific forecast, ours included, with skepticism. What we can give you is the framework. The Fed sets short-term policy off real data: job openings, jobless claims, the unemployment rate, and inflation relative to its stated 2% target. That data is genuine even when it clashes with what a small business owner or a CPA is seeing anecdotally on the ground. Our general read: a long stretch of elevated policy is unlikely to create damage beyond what is already working through the system, because the Fed tends to start easing once it sees clear signs of real economic strain rather than holding tight indefinitely. If the labor market stays hot and unemployment keeps falling, the Fed can justify staying restrictive for a while. If something visibly breaks, the cutting usually starts. This is a probability question, and the Fed itself adjusts as the data comes in. Keep your attention on the things you actually control (your credit, your savings, the payment you can comfortably carry) rather than trying to time a policy path no one can guarantee.