The old rule of thumb says six months of supply is a balanced market. Hold that number loosely. Below six months tilts toward sellers, above it toward buyers. Analyst Logan Mohtashami has argued that closer to four months fits the modern housing market better, and in practice well-priced homes can still draw multiple offers at lower readings. No single number stays correct forever: anything in the rough range of three to nine months, with natural ebb and flow, tends to keep both sides reasonably comfortable. The extremes are what distort things. The 18-plus months of supply during the 2008-2009 downturn crushed prices, and the under-one-month readings of the 2021 frenzy fueled bidding wars. On timing, inventory follows a fairly reliable seasonal rhythm: - Listings start trickling in after the new year, and the spring market picks up around early February. - Supply builds to full force through late April and May. - The most homes on the market usually show up in summer, roughly June into August depending on the region, before activity tapers into fall and the holidays. Summer gets credit as the busy season because that's when the most sales close, but those deals went under contract 30 to 90 days earlier, so spring is what really sets the tone. Harsh-winter markets see a sharper cold-season drop-off than milder climates.