The 10-year Treasury is the primary benchmark for 30-year mortgage rates, so the linkage matters far more than any particular level. Mortgage rates sit at a spread above the 10-year. That spread moves: it often runs somewhere in the neighborhood of two percentage points, wider when markets are stressed and lenders want more cushion, narrower when things are calm. When the 10-year moves, mortgage rates generally follow in the same direction. If you want to anticipate where mortgage rates are heading, the 10-year Treasury is the number to watch, ahead of the Fed funds rate. As an illustration of the mechanics: with the spread around two points, top-tier conventional borrowers price roughly two points above the yield, while borrowers with condos, low down payments, or lower credit scores price higher still because of the added risk. Inflation expectations and the bond market's read on growth move the 10-year, and both shift constantly. Nobody can promise where the yield goes next, and technical levels that look like a ceiling one month can give way the next. So skip the bet on a specific target and understand the linkage instead. Watch the 10-year and the spread, and your quoted rate's moves will make sense. You can follow daily mortgage pricing on the Mortgage News Daily rate table, right here on our site.