No, a lower mortgage rate is not guaranteed, and waiting on the Fed is one of the most common rate mistakes we see. Start with the mechanics. Mortgage rates do not track the Fed funds rate; they follow the 10-year Treasury, which moves on inflation and the broader economy. By the time the Fed actually cuts, its intentions have usually been telegraphed for months and priced into mortgage rates already. Borrowers regularly find rates about the same, sometimes higher, after a cut than before it. The move you are waiting for has frequently already happened. The Fed will likely keep easing over time, but probable and guaranteed are different things. The Fed has misjudged before, and meaningfully lower mortgage rates from here would take the 10-year breaking through levels it has struggled to clear. No one can promise that. So make the decision on what is knowable today. Our default is to lock rather than float: most people would rather lock and be a little wrong than float and be a lot wrong, and for a decision this stressful that is usually the right instinct. When a rate is available that works for your payment, take it, ideally at zero points, and refinance later if rates genuinely improve. Marry the house, date the rate, with the honest test attached: only take the deal if you could live with today's rate indefinitely, because the 30-year fixed gives you a free option to refinance lower, and an option is a possibility, never a promise. Pressure-testing that decision against your real numbers is what the free Roadmap conversation is for.