The instinct is right. Jobs matter more than almost anything else in housing, because without income, rates and affordability are academic. The complication is that labor data gets counterintuitive when you're watching rates. A low unemployment rate paired with a high number of job openings (the JOLTS report) can actually pressure rates upward. When openings outnumber available workers, employees have leverage to push for higher pay, and rising wages feed inflation, which tends to keep rates elevated. A hot labor market can work against mortgage rates. And in practice, job protection often is already the priority. When the Federal Reserve cuts rates to support employment even while inflation remains a concern, that choice is policymakers leaning toward protecting jobs. The tradeoff you're describing gets weighed actively, and it shows up in the rate decisions themselves. Nobody can promise where rates or the job market head next. Watch the employment reports and the Fed's stated priorities rather than any single prediction.