It depends on two things you can actually assess: your local inventory picture and how long you plan to own. Timing a purchase around a supply event a year or two out is genuinely hard, because it hinges on both future inventory and future rates, and nobody can promise where either goes. If you're planning to hold five to ten years, waiting usually offers little benefit; the timing noise washes out over that horizon. The stronger play is to use builder supply as leverage instead of a reason to sit out. When a national builder is carrying excess inventory, that's exactly when the incentives appear: price cuts, closing-cost help, rate buydowns. Buying near the end of a project, from the leftover standing inventory, gives you the most negotiating room. Those incentives are often worth more to your monthly payment than the modest price decline you're hoping materializes. One caution as you weigh them: a builder credit comes in lieu of a lower price, so it's your money financed into the loan, and it should be judged against the price itself. One counterintuitive note on new construction: in a multi-phase development, getting in during the early phases can work in your favor, since builders typically raise prices as later phases release. So "wait for more supply" and "buy early in a development" can both be right, depending on which situation you're in. As a general matter, we wouldn't count on existing-home prices falling meaningfully nationwide. Tell us your market and your time horizon and we can pressure-test the specific tradeoff with you on a free Roadmap call.