This is the classic points question in a different outfit, and our lean is toward keeping your cash. Points paid to buy a rate down are a sunk cost. On a permanent buydown the break-even often runs somewhere in the five-to-six-year range, and if you sell, move, or refinance before then, you never recoup what you paid. So if there's a reasonable chance you refinance within a few years, paying points works against you. Taking the higher rate with a lender credit keeps your cash and your flexibility, at the price of a higher payment while you hold the loan. For most borrowers that flexibility is worth more than the shot at a lower rate, which is why we treat the zero-point quote as the honest baseline and lean away from buydowns as a default. That said, this is your call, and it turns on how long you realistically keep this loan, never on a rate forecast anyone claims to have. Nobody, us included, can promise where rates go. If you expect to hold the loan a long time and want to see whether buying down ever pencils, that's a comparison some people want to see, and we'll run it for you in the free Roadmap conversation (about 20 minutes) with your real numbers.