A no-cost refinance is on the table any time the rate improvement is big enough, and on a larger loan it takes surprisingly little movement to get there. No-cost means the lender credit covers your closing costs in exchange for a slightly higher rate than you'd get paying the costs yourself. As long as that credit-covered rate still beats what you're paying, you come out ahead with nothing out of pocket, and you can do it again if pricing keeps improving. On timing, nobody can promise where rates go, and anyone who claims to know is guessing. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, which moves on inflation expectations and the broader economy, while the Fed only sets the short end. Those forces can pull rates lower or push them higher, and the path is genuinely uncertain. So skip the forecasting and set a trigger instead. Agree on a target rate with your lender, the level where a no-cost refinance clearly pays for your loan size, and be ready to lock the day pricing hits it. For a large ARM or a 30-year in the mid-6s (your example, not a market call), the worth-it bar is low enough that a standing trigger beats watching and reacting. The Mortgage News Daily rate table, right here on our site, is a good way to follow the day-to-day direction, and we're glad to figure out your specific break-even and watch it with you.