Run the break-even on your own loan. That number beats any rate forecast. Nobody can promise where rates go, so we don't chase one. Start with what the refinance costs you (closing costs, and whether you're rolling them into the balance or paying out of pocket). Then take the monthly savings from the new rate. Cost divided by monthly savings gives your break-even in months. If you'll comfortably stay in the home past that point, the refinance tends to make sense. If you might sell or refinance again before then, it usually doesn't. A few things matter beyond the headline rate. Your credit and loan-to-value drive the actual pricing you'll be quoted, and a low appraisal can push you into a tighter LTV tier. On a conventional rate-and-term refinance, standard programs go to 95% loan-to-value, and up to 97% on a single-unit primary residence when the agency that already owns your loan backs the new one. Cash-out is capped tighter, at 80% loan-to-value for a single-unit primary home on both conventional and FHA. Confirm the specifics for your property and program when you price it out. Don't wait for a perfect bottom that no one can call. Know your break-even number now, keep an eye on the Mortgage News Daily rate table right here on our site, and when pricing lines up for your loan, you can act. If you want us to run your actual numbers, that's exactly what the free Roadmap conversation covers (about 20 minutes).