Is it too risky to take on a housing payment around 45% of income now, expecting income to rise soon?

A 45% ratio doesn't scare us on its own. The assumption doing the heavy lifting, the raise you're counting on, is what needs pressure-testing. We close well-qualified borrowers right around 45% regularly, and serious trouble at that level is genuinely uncommon. Over a long career, the rare early-payment default that turns into a foreclosure stands out precisely because it almost never happens to a borrower who was solid going in. So get specific about what drives the income increase: a contractual raise, a role you've already been offered, or a projection that's reasonable but unguaranteed. The more concrete and near-certain it is, the more comfortable 45% becomes. If it's closer to a hope, you're carrying a tight payment on today's income with no fallback, and that is a different risk. Qualifying for a payment and living comfortably with it are two separate things. A lender won't approve a ratio the guidelines consider unsafe, but only you know your real spending and how much cushion you keep each month. Walk through your actual budget at the higher payment, assume the raise lands later than promised, and see whether the numbers still work. If they do, 45% is a reasonable place to be.