If an offer over asking gets a low appraisal, are sellers more likely to negotiate when the appraisal contingency wasn't waived?

Yes. Keeping the appraisal contingency is what preserves your leverage, and a seller already in escrow will often renegotiate a price they would never have accepted as an opening offer. Whether a specific seller reduces is case by case, and a lot depends on where they are in the process. A seller in escrow has mentally moved on and has often physically started packing. Jeb's experience when appraisals came in short: sellers reduced the price to match nearly every time, because unwinding the deal and starting over is painful once they are committed. Your leverage also tracks the broader market: - When buyers are scarce and homes sit longer, a seller facing a short appraisal has fewer alternatives and is more likely to reduce. - When homes draw multiple offers, that same seller can cancel and take another buyer, sometimes a higher one, so the pressure runs the other way. Nobody can promise which environment you will be buying in, so build the protection into the contract instead of betting on the market. Waiving the appraisal contingency means agreeing to cover any shortfall in cash. Keep it unless you are genuinely prepared to write that check.