Only buy if you're comfortable with the payment exactly as it is today, with no refinance assumed. "Marry the house, date the rate" became popular advice, and the trouble is it sets an expectation of an easy, near-term refinance nobody can promise. Plenty of buyers have held higher rates far longer than they were led to expect. The 30-year fixed does hand you a free option to refinance if rates fall, and an option is a possibility, never a plan. A refinance can also be blocked later even if rates drop, by insufficient equity among other things. So treat a future refinance as a bonus if it comes. The payment has to work as-is, indefinitely. On your specifics: closing costs running into the tens of thousands on a large loan deserve a hard second look. Set aside the prepaid items (taxes, insurance), and a big remaining figure usually means significant discount points. We lean against paying points, especially when a refinance is part of your own thinking, because points are a sunk cost you may never earn back. Make at least one more call, ideally to a broker who shops many investors, purely to sanity-check the structure before you commit. Not to yank the loan away from your current lender, just to confirm you're getting the best available setup.