I locked my rate right before rates dropped slightly -- was that just bad luck?

You made the right call, and we'd say that knowing rates ticked down after you locked. A lock removes a risk you couldn't control. The move that day depended on data nobody had yet. If an inflation report like CPI had come in hot instead of soft, rates could just as easily have jumped, and that has happened plenty of times when everyone expected the opposite. You gave up a small potential gain to avoid a much more painful loss, which is exactly what a lock is for. Size the number honestly, too. An eighth of a percent, 0.125%, is real but small. On a loan around $280,000, that difference works out to roughly $50 a month. Real money over the life of the loan, but nothing worth losing sleep over. Notice how the regret runs, as well. People are far more upset when they float and watch rates rise an eighth than when they lock and watch rates slip an eighth. The first feels like a mistake you made; the second feels like a coin flip that landed the other way. Both are the same size. Most people would rather lock and be a little wrong than float and be a lot wrong, and for a decision this stressful, that's usually the right instinct. Once you've locked, stop watching the daily tape. You already bought certainty, and that was the point.