Builders build less in a downturn, and less new supply tends to support prices rather than sink them. When sentiment sours and affordability tightens, builders pull back on new starts to avoid getting stuck with unsold inventory, and they rarely ramp back up until conditions and affordability improve. The historical record is a useful anchor. Across roughly the last nine U.S. recessions, home prices moved mostly sideways in the large majority, and only about two saw meaningful declines. In both of those, housing itself caused the recession. That is the key distinction: a downturn that starts inside housing, a lending or oversupply problem, is the kind that drags prices down. A downturn caused by something outside housing has usually left prices fairly stable, with the pain showing up as lower sales volume. So watch what caused the recession and what supply is doing, more than the bare label 'recession' itself. Nobody can promise where prices go, but elevated rates have tended to produce low volume with fairly stable prices, and a real price decline needs forced sellers at scale. Our standing advice fits here: buy when the timing is right in your life, plan on a long horizon, and treat a future refinance as a possibility rather than a guarantee.