Recessions create downward pressure on rates through Fed policy, but inflation expectations on the long end can override that pressure. When a cycle breaks the script, the long end is usually why. The mechanism behind the textbook pattern is real. As the economy weakens, the Fed can back off the rate hikes it uses to fight inflation, and it often cuts its short-term rate to support growth. That easing is why rates have historically drifted lower heading into and through past recessions. The complication is that the Fed only controls the short end. Mortgage rates track the long end, mainly the 10-year Treasury, which moves on the bond market's read of inflation and growth. If bond investors worry inflation will stay elevated, long-term rates can hold up or even rise for a stretch while the economy is clearly slowing. That breaks the usual recession-means-lower-rates reflex. So treat the relationship as a tendency. A recession pushes down on rates through Fed policy, and inflation expectations can outweigh that push for a while. Nobody can promise which force wins or how fast, so be skeptical of any confident call on where rates go from here. What is durable: Fed policy moves the short end, and inflation expectations move the long end. Hold onto that and the headlines get a lot easier to read.