Historically, mortgage rates tend to be lower during recessions. A recession is a contraction, and a few forces push rates down at once. Money flows toward safety, which usually means buying Treasuries, and higher demand for those bonds pushes their yields down. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, so they generally follow. Inflation also cools when the economy weakens, and cooler inflation means lower rates. On top of that, the Fed typically responds by lowering the Fed funds rate to encourage borrowing and spending. One precise note: mortgage rates do not drop simply because the Fed cuts. The Fed sets a short-term rate, while your mortgage tracks the longer end of the curve. Rates fall in a recession mainly because growth and inflation expectations fall; the Fed cutting is part of that same story rather than the direct cause. The simplest framing we use: inflation brings higher rates, and recessions are disinflationary, which brings lower rates. The rare exception is stagflation, high inflation paired with a weak economy, which has really only shown up once, in the early 1980s. That is the one scenario where the usual pattern can break. And history is only a tendency; nobody can guarantee how the next cycle plays out.