An escrow analysis looks forward twelve months, and a refund today plus a higher payment next year can both be correct at the same time. Your servicer projects the next year using your current insurance premium and currently assessed taxes, then checks the account against the legal limits. A balance projected above the maximum allowed cushion triggers a refund. A balance projected to dip below the required cushion at any point triggers a higher monthly payment to close the gap. As an illustration, a projection showing the account about $500 short over the year would add roughly $42 a month going forward. On a brand-new build there is a trap worth flagging. If the analysis used the temporary raw-land tax assessment instead of the true post-purchase assessed value, your taxes are being badly underestimated, and the real, higher bill will land later, sometimes retroactively. If that is your situation, do not spend the refund. Park it, call your servicer, and ask for a supervisor if needed, so they can re-run the analysis on the correct assessment for new construction.