We are skeptical of any rule built on election cycles, because there have not been enough of them for a pattern to mean anything. A pattern that cannot survive twenty-plus repetitions is a coincidence dressed up as a trend. The only mechanism that even sounds plausible: a sitting president benefits from a calm economy and calm rates heading into a vote. A challenger has no lever at all before taking office. And presidents in general get far more credit and blame for the economy than they deserve. Rates are set by the bond market and the Fed's read on inflation and employment, whoever is in the White House. So we do not hold a strong view that mortgage rates reliably drift down into an election year, and timing a purchase or refinance around the calendar is a shaky foundation. Watch the actual drivers instead: inflation data, the labor market, and the 10-year Treasury. Nobody can promise which way rates go regardless of what year it is.