Yes on the points: every rate has a zero-point version, so paying points is a choice, never a requirement. The zero-point quote is our preferred starting place anyway. On many loans you can go a step further and take a slightly higher rate in exchange for a lender credit that covers your costs. Whether to refinance the ARM at all depends on two things: how much of the fixed period is left, and how big the loan is. Several comfortable years before the first adjustment usually means no rush. And the math leans on loan size. A quarter-point improvement is hard to justify on a small balance and much easier on a large one, because the dollar savings scale with the loan. On where rates go, we'll be straight with you: nobody can promise a direction, us included. What we can give you is the framework. Long mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield, which moves on inflation expectations and the market's read on growth. The Fed sets short-term rates, which influence the long end indirectly but don't control it. The 10-year has often drifted lower over the course of past Fed easing cycles, but the size and timing vary a lot from cycle to cycle, and the spread between Treasuries and mortgages moves too. So rather than waiting on a number nobody can guarantee, set your own trigger: the rate at which a refinance clears its costs for your loan. Act when the market gets there. We're glad to work out that break-even with you on the free Roadmap conversation.