Yes, you can refinance before the one-year mark, and no, we will not guess how low rates go. Nothing in your ARM imposes a waiting period. The one wrinkle sits on the lender's side: when a loan is done with no points, the lender earns its compensation through the rate, collecting a premium when the loan is sold. If the loan pays off very quickly, the lender's contract with the investor who bought it usually requires giving that premium back. That early-payoff recapture is a contract term, most commonly 180 days, though it varies by investor, roughly 120 to 210. It explains why some lenders like a loan to stay on the books about six months. It never blocks your refinance. On where rates go: nobody can promise a number, and anyone who does is guessing. Long mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, which trades on inflation expectations and the market's read on the economy, and the spread between the two widens and narrows on its own. The Fed sets short-term rates and only nudges the long end. So skip the forecast and set your own trigger: the rate at which a refinance clears its costs for your loan. We will run that break-even with you on the free Roadmap conversation, about 20 minutes with your real numbers.