This is a forecast question, so we will give you the framework instead of a prediction. The dynamic the Fed pointed at is the lock-in effect: with so many owners holding low locked-in rates, higher rates suppress the incentive to sell, which throttles transaction activity, and that can drag on for a while. Whether it becomes a longer-term drag on values depends mostly on where rates settle. A protracted stretch of elevated rates (illustratively, 8% or above) would start to pressure prices. If rates ease, activity tends to thaw. Nobody can promise which way that goes. Housing analyst Logan Mohtashami adds a nuance worth folding in: even when rates dip and activity ticks up, transaction volume stays near historic lows, so there is no real 'rebound.' The 2022 downturn was a crash in the number of transactions, not in prices, and volume does not meaningfully recover until affordability and rates improve together. So Fed commentary about rates weighing on housing says more about transaction volume than about an imminent price move, and the seasonal-versus-structural question only resolves as rates resolve. Watch the trend on the Mortgage News Daily rate table, right here on our site, and watch your own affordability, rather than trying to reverse-engineer the Fed's intent.