How often appraisals come in short moves with the market: appraisals look backward at closed sales while contract prices push forward. Appraisers rely on closed comparable sales, which lag by definition. When prices are rising fast and buyers are stretching past recent comps to win, more appraisals struggle to catch the contract price. When prices are flat or softening, closed comps support contracts easily and short appraisals fade. The frequency tracks how fast values are moving and how far past the last closings buyers are bidding, and nobody can promise where that sits in any given month. Even when an appraisal does come in short, it is usually a manageable gap, often a few thousand dollars. The deals that survive it are almost always the ones where the buyer planned for the possibility in the contract ahead of time. That is the real lesson in any environment. Keep your appraisal contingency unless you are genuinely prepared to cover a shortfall in cash, and decide in advance what you would do if the value comes in low: renegotiate, bring extra cash, or walk. A plan built into the offer beats guessing at today's odds.