Refinances never stop entirely. What changes is the reason people do them. When rates run above what most homeowners have locked in, the classic rate-and-term refinance largely dries up, because trading a cheaper rate for a more expensive one makes no sense for the borrower. What continues is need-based refinancing. The clearest example is the borrower who has to refinance regardless of the rate environment. Someone who bought a home with a hard money loan to fund renovations usually faces a short balloon term, often 12 to 24 months, plus a high interest rate. Once the work is done, they have no choice but to refinance into permanent financing, even if going rates are higher than they would like. Cash-out refinances also continue in a limited way, for people who genuinely need to tap equity. Many of them look at current pricing against their existing low rate and decide the trade is not worth it, which keeps that volume small too. So the honest picture: refinance volume shrinks a lot when rates are high relative to locked-in loans, and the transactions that still happen are driven by necessity.