Buyers have more leverage in this housing market than they've had in years. That is real. But the Redfin headline calling this the strongest buyer's market on record needs context.
It is technically accurate within Redfin's dataset, which starts in 2013. It is much easier to misread as a broader historical claim. Go back to 2010 and today's market looks far less extreme.
Why that matters: treating every seller like they're desperate could cost you the house you actually want. Not every home is overpriced, and firing off a lowball offer with nothing to back it up is one of the fastest ways to get a seller to tell you to pound sand.
Redfin's "strongest buyer's market on record" only goes back to 2013. In 2010, the market had 12.5 months of supply and nearly 4 million homes for sale.
National prices are still rising roughly 1.5% to 2% year over year depending on the dataset. That is a slowdown, not a crash.
Leverage is intensely local. Buyers have serious room in some Sunbelt markets while desirable homes in tighter markets still move quickly.
Lowball offers need comps and context. Days on market alone doesn't tell you a seller is desperate.
Seller credits and price reductions can have very different value to the buyer even when the cost to the seller is similar.
If you expect to buy in the next 4-6 months, learn your local market before you start writing offers.
So yes, the market has shifted toward buyers. No, this does not look anything like the buyer's market that followed the Great Financial Crisis. And whether you have leverage depends mostly on where and what you're buying.
Redfin estimates that sellers now substantially outnumber buyers nationally, the widest gap in its records. The catch is simple: those records begin in 2013, when the housing market was already climbing out of the post-crash bottom.
Go back to July 2010 and the comparison changes. There were about 3.98 million existing homes for sale and 12.5 months of supply. Today, the National Association of Realtors puts inventory at about 1.62 million homes with 4.9 months of supply.
Today's buyers clearly have more choices than they did during the pandemic frenzy, when inventory fell below a million homes and supply dropped below two months. That is a major shift.
But 2010 gives the headline some perspective. There were roughly two and a half times as many homes for sale as there are today, and enough inventory to last more than a year at the existing sales pace. If one seller didn't like your offer, there was a good chance you had several alternatives.
We are nowhere near that today.
Price tells the same story. National home prices are still running roughly 1.5% to 2% higher than a year ago depending on the dataset, despite higher rates and strained affordability. Appreciation has slowed dramatically, but nationally this is still a softer market, not a housing crash.
Supply, inventory, and pricing figures here reflect the market as of 9/21/2026 and will change over time.
National housing numbers hide what buyers actually need to know: your leverage can change dramatically from one market to another.
In much of the Sunbelt, buyers have serious room. Redfin showed far more sellers than buyers in markets including Nashville, Miami, Houston, Orlando, Austin, and Dallas. In West Palm Beach, about 85% of homes sold below their original asking price, the highest share in the country. Nationwide, Redfin put that number at 59.5%.
You may also have seen reports that roughly 40% of active listings have taken price cuts. Those numbers don't conflict. They measure different things. A price reduction happens while the home is listed. Redfin's 59.5% measures homes that ultimately closed below their original asking price. A seller can negotiate below asking without ever publicly reducing the price.
Flip to tighter markets and the experience is completely different. Parts of the Northeast and California still have fewer homes relative to buyer demand, and desirable properties can move quickly with fewer concessions or price reductions.
Both buyers can be right about the market because they are describing different markets.
Before deciding how aggressive to be, you need someone who can pull the data down to your ZIP code, neighborhood, and property type. This is where a data-driven agent earns their keep, and it's why we walk through how to actually use your leverage in a buyer's market instead of assuming you have it.
A house sits for 60 days, so the buyer assumes the seller is desperate and writes an offer $100,000 under asking.
The problem is they often have no idea why it's sitting. Maybe it went into escrow and the buyer's financing died. Maybe the price is reasonable but the floor plan is weird. Maybe average days on market in that neighborhood is 90.
An aggressive offer you can't support can also make the negotiation harder. It irritates the seller and can tell the listing agent the buyer isn't serious. Jeb has closed 450+ homes, and in his experience, negotiations that begin with an offer the seller sees as completely disconnected from the market are much harder to put back together.
Timing matters too. If a seller just cut the price from $1,000,000 to $975,000, they probably want to see whether the new price works before considering $925,000. If the home then sits another month with no activity, the conversation changes because the seller has new information from the market.
Days on market gives you a clue. It doesn't give you the answer.
Start by figuring out why the home isn't selling. Is it location? Condition? Floor plan? Or simply price?
Your agent should be asking the listing agent direct questions: Have you had offers? Are you getting showings? Why did the previous escrow fall apart? What feedback are buyers giving you?
Then anchor your offer to comparable sales, not a national headline.
Say a home is listed at $1,000,000 and the comps suggest it's worth about $950,000. You'd be happy buying it at the market value supported by the comparable sales, so you might open around $930,000 to $935,000 with actual data behind the offer.
In addition, your agent should also ask how the listing side arrived at its price. Sometimes the seller insisted on $1 million despite the agent recommending $950,000 based on recent sales in the area. But in other cases, the home may legitimately deserve a premium because of the view, condition, upgrades, or a better floor plan than the lower priced comps.
That context tells you whether you're negotiating with a reasonable seller or a "make me move" seller who doesn't actually need to move.
A listener buying in San Diego County ran into exactly this. He wanted roughly a 10% improvement to the deal once price, closing costs, a rate buydown, and the remaining solar balance were included. Several days of hard negotiation got the parties close. Inspections uncovered more problems, the buyer pushed for further concessions, and the seller walked. Days later they were close to putting the deal back together.
Nobody felt like they won by a landslide. In many markets,** that is what a negotiated deal looks like today.**
Price is one lever. In a softer market, buyers often get several more.
Seller concessions. A seller credit can reduce your cash at closing or help buy down the mortgage rate. A price reduction lowers what you're paying and usually lowers the loan amount. A $15,000 credit and $15,000 price cut may look similar to the seller but can produce very different results for you. Credits are also subject to loan-program limits and allowable costs. We break that down in how seller credits actually work.
Longer timelines. When there's no competing offer, you may have more room to complete inspections, underwriting, and the appraisal without unnecessarily rushing.
A smaller deposit. In most states, including California, earnest money does not have to equal 3% of the purchase price. Three percent matters under California's liquidated-damages rules, but it is not a required minimum deposit.
Non-cash terms. A rent-back, extra relocation time, or a quick close can matter as much as money to the right seller. Sometimes solving the seller's timing problem gets you a better price.
The condo caveat: condos have been sitting longer in many areas because of HOA assessments, insurance problems, and lending changes. That can create opportunity, but it also means there is more homework to do before deciding if the lower price is a bargain.
When it comes to buying a home, personal readiness comes before the headlines. If you're not financially ready, a buyer's market is not a reason to rush into a house.
If you are ready, trying to perfectly time the bottom is a different bet. Today's national data shows a softer, more negotiable housing market. It does not show a 2008-style collapse underway.
If you have a four-to-six-month runway, use it. Establish a baseline for your market, watch inventory and days on market, track price reductions, and pay attention to how much homes actually sell for relative to their original asking prices.
Also account for seasonality. We are heading into the slower part of the year in many markets, especially places where weather meaningfully reduces buyer activity.
By the time you're ready to shop seriously, you should know whether desirable homes in your market still move quickly or whether buyers can push harder on price and terms.
And remember: a buyer's market does not make every house a bargain. Turnkey homes in great locations that are priced correctly can still attract multiple offers.
The stronger you are as a buyer, with good credit, adequate cash, and clean financing, the more of these levers you can actually pull. If you want to know where you stand before you shop, start with the two-minute readiness quiz.
The wrong offer or loan structure can cost far more than a small difference in rate, especially if it causes you to overpay, waste a useful seller credit, or choose financing that doesn't fit your plans.
Get a local expert agent in your corner
Tell us where you're looking and we'll match you with a local expert agent Jeb has personally vetted, someone who knows your neighborhoods and how to negotiate in them. They'll negotiate hard for you, keep you from overpaying or losing the home you want, and have your back from the first showing to keys in hand. Need the mortgage side handled too? Done.
No. It is the strongest buyer's market in Redfin's records, which begin in 2013. In July 2010, there were about 3.98 million existing homes for sale and 12.5 months of supply, compared with roughly 1.62 million homes and 4.9 months today. Buyers have far more leverage than during the pandemic frenzy, but today's market is nowhere close to the excess supply that followed the financial crisis.
Not automatically. A house sitting for 60 days doesn't prove the seller is desperate. Find out why it hasn't sold, check comparable sales and typical days on market, then anchor your offer to the property and the seller's situation.
No. Markets like Nashville, Miami, Houston, Orlando, Austin, Dallas, and West Palm Beach currently give buyers significantly more leverage. Other markets remain tighter, and even within the same city the balance can change by neighborhood, price range, and property type.
They measure different things. The roughly 40% figure tracks active listings where the seller publicly reduced the asking price. Redfin's 59.5% measures homes that ultimately closed below their original asking price. A seller can negotiate a lower price without ever posting a price reduction.
It depends on what you need. A lower price usually reduces the amount you finance. A seller credit can reduce the cash you need at closing or help buy down the interest rate. The better choice depends on your cash position, loan structure, and how long you expect to keep the mortgage.
Start with comparable sales, days on market, and the home's price-reduction history. Multiple reductions can indicate a seller responding to the market. A home that sits without changing price could mean the seller doesn't need to sell, disagrees with the market, or owns a property that is difficult to value. Days on market is useful information, but it is never the whole story.